your own risk calculated

Welcome to Birthrisk™

In 2006 Dr. San Román began developing a series of software tools that uses data from prior outcomes to improve the way that labor patients are managed. Research reveals that labor is a physical process and the risk that a woman’s labor will end in a cesarean birth is determined by BOTH a woman’s physical characteristics AND the effect of her obstetrical care provider’s labor management strategies. Therefore, it is impossible to measure the effect of the obstetrical care provider without providing risk adjustment for the physical characteristics of the women who are giving birth.

The Birthrisk Cesarean Birth Measure is one of our software tools that can be used by obstetrical care providers, hospitals and hospital systems to obtain an accurate assessment of their cesarean birth utilization. It is the combination of data driven results obtained from almost 10 million prior births and the adjustment for the physical characteristics of the women who are giving birth that makes the Birthrisk Cesarean Birth Measure the only accurate measure of cesarean birth utilization available.

Analysis of United States birth data from 2014 confirms many risk factors for cesarean birth and reveals ways that the risk of cesarean birth for first time mothers can be decreased. Click here to read a scientific analysis of the 2014 birth data.

Unfortunately, as of July 1, 2016, the cesarean birth utilization of hospitals nation-wide is being assessed with a measure that disregards the physical characteristics of the women who are giving birth. Use of the unadjusted NTSV core measure PC-02 will negatively impact hospitals located in areas where there is more obesity and where women delay childbearing until they are older. To learn more about cesarean birth utilization view the videos below.


For a presentation on why an unadjusted Nulliparous Term Singleton Vertex (NTSV) cesarean birth rate is not a useful cesarean birth measure click here (24:07).
For a presentation explaining the creation of the Birthrisk Cesarean Birth Measure including the research behind the measure and its validation click here (12:19).
For a presentation on how the Birthrisk Cesarean Birth Measure provides information on its use to compare outcomes in hospitals and for research click here (7:00)
For a presentation on the robust reporting features for the Birthrisk Cesarean Birth Measure that can be used by healthcare administrators, hospitals and obstetrical care providers click here (3:12)
For a presentation on the data collection required for the Birthrisk Cesarean Birth Measure click here (1:25)
For a presentation that combines the above five presentations into one click here (47:19)

If you are a healthcare professional and would like more information about and/or the scientific method used in the tools, please send an e-mail to with your name, address and obstetrical group or hospital name and we will send you detailed information. supports Healthy People 2020 in trying to reduce the number of cesarean births. However, their goal of achieving an unadjusted NTSV cesarean birth rate of 23.9% at the national level is very different from making the claim that every hospital should have a rate of 23.9%. Unfortunately, hospitals in California may soon be denied participation in Covered California if they have a rate of over 23.9%.

Dr. San Román has voiced his concerns regarding the endorsement by the National Quality Forum (NQF) of an unadjusted NTSV cesarean birth rate as a cesarean birth measure. The justification given by the expert panels at the LeapFrog Group, the Joint Commission and the NQF for using an unadjusted NTSV cesarean birth rate is that “the effect of age is cancelled out by BMI”. To view the comment made by Dr. San Román at the NQF click here..

In the summer of 2015 Dr. San Román was able to successfully make the Joint Commission aware of the fatal leveraging error that was contained in the direct standardization age risk adjustment being used in their core measure PC-02. This error was buried deep in the mathematics of the risk adjustment and this is probably why it was missed by so many people for so long. For a detailed analysis of the error click here. Dr. San Román assumed that the acknowledgement of this fatal error would result in a recall of the measure.

In February of 2016 Dr. San Román became concerned that the fatal leveraging error uncovered in the risk adjustment for measure PC-02 Cesarean Birth was not disclosed by the Joint Commission to the National Quality Forum during the measure maintenance process. More concerning is that the Joint Commission has simply removed the risk adjustment from their core measure PC-02 v2016A. Removing the risk adjustment only makes the measure worse and this is very concerning since this measure could potentially affect millions of women every year.

To learn more about Dr. San Román’s concerns and to review the documentation behind his concerns click here.

Last modified: 06/06/17

Copyright © 2007-2018, LLC. All Rights Reserved.